Declining Fertility Rate in India: India’s Fertility Rate Falls to US and European Levels

Why is Fertility Rate Declining?

The declining fertility rate in India is the result of several interconnected social and economic changes.

1. Rising Female Education

Improvement in female education has played an important role in India’s fertility transition.

Education can influence:

• Age at marriage
• Awareness about reproductive health
• Use of contraception
• Employment opportunities
• Family-size preferences
• Investment in children’s education

Educated families may increasingly prefer having fewer children while investing more resources in each child.

2. Delayed Marriage and Childbearing

Marriage and childbearing are increasingly occurring later than in previous generations.

A later start to family formation generally reduces the length of the reproductive period and can contribute to smaller family sizes.

3. Decline in Child Mortality

Historically, high child mortality encouraged some families to have more children because the survival of every child was uncertain.

Improved:

• Vaccination
• Maternal healthcare
• Institutional deliveries
• Nutrition
• Sanitation
• Child healthcare

have significantly improved child survival.

As child survival improves, families generally have less need to have additional births as a precaution.

4. Urbanisation

Urban living has changed family structures and economic calculations.

Urban families often face:

• Higher housing costs
• Higher education expenses
• Higher childcare costs
• Greater career pressures
• Limited living space

These factors can encourage couples to prefer smaller families.

5. Changing Aspirations

The concept of family size has changed.

The preference is increasingly shifting from:

“More children” → “Better opportunities for fewer children.”

Parents may choose to have fewer children so they can invest more in education, healthcare, nutrition and overall development.

6. Greater Access to Family Planning

India was the first country in the world to launch a national family planning programme, in 1952. Over time, the programme has expanded from population stabilisation towards a broader reproductive-health and family-planning approach.

According to NFHS-5, India’s modern contraceptive prevalence rate was 56.5%.

Greater access to contraception allows couples to make informed decisions about the timing and number of children.

From Population Control to Demographic Management

The EAC-PM working paper raises an important policy question: Should policies designed during a period of high population growth continue unchanged when fertility has already fallen below replacement level?

The demographic situation today is different from the situation several decades ago.

India now needs to simultaneously manage:

• Low fertility
• Regional demographic differences
• Population ageing
• Labour-force requirements
• Internal migration
• Women’s workforce participation
• Social security
• Healthcare for the elderly

Therefore, the policy conversation is gradually moving from simply population control towards broader demographic management.

Implications of Declining Fertility

A falling fertility rate can have both opportunities and challenges depending on the stage of demographic transition.

1. Demographic Dividend

Lower fertility initially increases the proportion of the population in the working-age group.

This can create a demographic dividend if the country can provide:

• Quality education
• Skills
• Jobs
• Healthcare
• Higher female labour-force participation
• Productive employment

The demographic dividend is therefore not automatic. It depends on whether the working-age population is productively employed.

2. Population Ageing

If fertility remains below replacement for a prolonged period, the proportion of elderly people gradually increases.

This can increase demand for:

• Geriatric healthcare
• Pensions
• Social security
• Long-term care
• Assisted living facilities
• Elder-friendly infrastructure

The EAC-PM has separately highlighted how declining fertility, rising elderly populations and urbanisation are changing India’s care requirements.

3. Labour Shortages

Low-fertility states may eventually experience slower growth in their working-age population.

This can create labour shortages in sectors such as:

• Manufacturing
• Construction
• Healthcare
• Agriculture
• Services
• Care economy

4. Internal Migration

• India already has substantial interstate migration.
• Differences in demographic structure may strengthen migration from relatively younger and higher-fertility regions towards states with ageing populations and greater demand for workers.
• This can make internal migration an increasingly important part of India’s economic structure.

5. Changing Dependency Ratio

• When fertility declines, the child-dependent population initially falls.
• This can improve the dependency ratio and create an opportunity for economic growth.
• However, as the population ages, old-age dependency begins to rise.
• Thus, the demographic advantage can eventually transform into a challenge if the country is not prepared for ageing.

Population Ageing and the Care Economy

One of the major long-term consequences of sustained low fertility is the growth of the elderly population.

Traditionally, Indian families have provided much of the care for elderly members through joint and extended family systems.

However, urbanisation and changing family structures are weakening some traditional care arrangements.

This creates a need for stronger public and private systems for:

• Elderly healthcare
• Home-based care
• Assisted care
• Pension coverage
• Social security
• Community-based support

The EAC-PM’s work on the care economy highlights the need to view care not merely as a private family responsibility but increasingly as an important social and economic infrastructure requirement.

Regional Demographic Imbalance

India’s fertility transition also has an important regional dimension.

Low-fertility states and high-fertility states may face different challenges.

Low-Fertility States

Likely concerns include:

• Ageing population

• Smaller future workforce

• Labour shortages

• Higher elderly dependency

• Greater healthcare and pension requirements

Relatively Higher-Fertility States

These states may have:

• Larger young populations

• Greater demand for education

• Higher need for employment creation

• Potentially larger future labour supply

This difference can increase the importance of interstate migration and balanced regional development.

Fertility Rate in Chhattisgarh

For CGPSC, this topic is particularly important because Chhattisgarh is part of India’s broader demographic transition but has historically had a fertility profile different from the lowest-fertility southern states.

An older Ministry of Health and Family Welfare report showed that Chhattisgarh’s TFR had already declined from 2.6 in NFHS-3 to 2.2 in NFHS-4, illustrating the state’s longer-term fertility decline.

Fertility rate in Chhattisgarh can therefore be studied through the following themes:

• Fertility transition
• Tribal and rural demography
• Maternal and child health
• Family planning
• Women’s education
• Migration
• Working-age population
• Ageing
• Human capital

Why Chhattisgarh Matters

Chhattisgarh has a significant rural and tribal population, making access to healthcare, reproductive health services, women’s education and employment important demographic factors.

The state’s future demographic profile will influence:

• Workforce availability
• Urbanisation
• Migration
• Healthcare demand
• Education requirements
• Social welfare expenditure

Therefore, demographic policy in Chhattisgarh needs to consider both population quality and population structure, rather than focusing only on population size.

Challenges

India’s changing fertility pattern creates several policy challenges.

• 1. Unequal Demographic Transition
  • Different states are moving through the fertility transition at different speeds.
• 2. Ageing
  • States with persistently low fertility may face a rapidly increasing elderly population.
• 3. Employment
  • A large working-age population creates an advantage only when adequate productive employment is available.
• 4. Migration Management
  • Increasing interstate migration may require better portability of welfare benefits, housing, healthcare and labour protections.
• 5. Women’s Workforce Participation
  • Lower fertility does not automatically translate into higher female employment. India needs policies that enable women to participate more fully in the labour market.
• 6. Healthcare and Social Security
  • An ageing society requires greater investment in preventive healthcare, geriatric services and pension systems.
• 7. Policy Transition
  • Population policies designed for a high-fertility environment may need to be reassessed as states move towards low fertility.

Way Forward

India’s demographic transition requires a balanced approach rather than a single focus on either population growth or population decline.

Invest in Human Capital

Improve:

• Education
• Skills
• Healthcare
• Nutrition
• Women’s empowerment

A smaller population can become an economic advantage only when its human capital is strong.

Create Quality Employment

India needs sufficient productive employment to absorb its working-age population and realise the demographic dividend.

Labour-intensive manufacturing, services and emerging sectors can play an important role.

Prepare for Ageing

India should strengthen:

• Pension systems
• Geriatric healthcare
• Health insurance
• Long-term care
• Elder-friendly infrastructure
• Social security programmes

Support Families

Policies should also recognise the economic costs associated with raising children.

Supportive measures can include:

• Affordable childcare
• Maternity and parental benefits
• Flexible workplaces
• Housing support
• Better work-life balance

Address Regional Imbalances

India needs balanced regional development while facilitating safe and productive internal migration.

States with labour shortages may increasingly depend on workers from relatively younger states.

Strengthen Women’s Participation

Greater female participation in education and employment should remain central to demographic policy.

Women should have the freedom and support to make informed choices regarding education, employment, marriage and family size.

Conclusion

India has moved a long way from the era of very high fertility towards a low-fertility demographic regime. The national TFR is now below replacement level, while several states have remained below replacement fertility for decades.

The India fertility rate falls trend makes the demographic challenge increasingly complex. India needs to benefit from its working-age population while simultaneously preparing for population ageing, changing family structures, regional demographic differences and future labour requirements.

The key policy question is no longer simply how to reduce population growth, but how to ensure that India’s changing population structure contributes to economic growth, social security and human development.

CGPSC Prelims 2026 

• TFR: Total Fertility Rate.
• Replacement-level fertility: Approximately 2.1 children per woman.
• India’s TFR was 2.0 in NFHS-5 (2019–21).
• EAC-PM’s recent working paper puts India’s TFR at 1.9.
• Excluding Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, TFR is 1.6.
• The EAC-PM paper compares 1.6 with the United States (1.6) and Northern Europe (1.5).
• India’s national family planning programme was launched in 1952.
• NFHS-5 reported a 56.5% modern contraceptive prevalence rate.
• Lower fertility can initially support a demographic dividend.
• Persistently low fertility can eventually contribute to population ageing.

CGPSC Prelims Practice Questions

MCQ 1

According to the recent EAC-PM working paper, what is India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR)?

A. 2.7
B. 2.3
C. 1.9
D. 1.5

Answer: C. 1.9

MCQ 2

What is generally considered the replacement-level fertility rate?

A. 1.5 children per woman
B. 1.8 children per woman
C. 2.1 children per woman
D. 2.5 children per woman

Answer: C. 2.1 children per woman

MCQ 3

According to the EAC-PM working paper, India’s TFR excluding Bihar and Uttar Pradesh is approximately:

A. 1.2
B. 1.4
C. 1.6
D. 2.1

Answer: C. 1.6

MCQ 4

India launched its national family planning programme in which year?

A. 1947
B. 1950
C. 1952
D. 1961

Answer: C. 1952

CGPSC Mains Practice Questions

Question 1

India’s demographic challenge is gradually shifting from population growth to population ageing. Discuss.

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